UK Election Shock Could Markets Worldwide

Nick Mcbride
June 5, 2017

Prime Minister Theresa May could lose control of parliament in Britain's June 8 election, according to a projection by polling company YouGov, raising the prospect of political deadlock just as formal Brexit talks begin.

"The latest YouGov survey - so maybe the market should treat it with a pinch of salt - has a mere 3 point gap between Labour and the Tories, the latest example of momentum being with Jeremy Corbyn".

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the manifesto would create a "war between generations" if implemented.

But the firm also allowed itself a huge margin for error, following weeks of polls showing a strong Tory lead amid widespread predictions of a landslide.

Stefan Shakespeare, CEO of YouGov said that it would only take a small shift in favor of the Conservatives to see them win a healthy majority in the general election.

The Panelbase poll, conducted between May 19-23 showed the Conservatives winning 48 percent of the vote in June 8 elections, with Labour on 33 percent.

Pickering said Berenberg would not be surprised if the outcome of the United Kingdom general election also turned out to be a surprise, even while all the polls still project that the Conservatives will be ahead in the vote.

May will be seeking to regain the upper hand for her party before voters take to the polls to vote for the new government in the general election on June 8th.

The Daily Telegraph newspaper's rolling average of the last eight polls now puts the Conservatives on 44 percent, Labour on 36 percent, the centrist Liberal Democrats on eight percent and the anti-EU UK Independence Party on five percent.

Wednesday's Kantar poll showed Labour was most trusted on its No.1 election issue, the health service, but lagged behind on the other four: Brexit, national security, immigration and the economy. "But the Conservatives' lead has more than halved in recent polls", Kallum Pickering, senior United Kingdom economist at Berenberg, said in a note.

Opinion polls predicted a hung parliament in 2015, however, Ed Miliband's Labour party suffered a significant loss to David Cameron's Conservative Party.

Betting markets give a more than 80% probability of May winning an overall majority, though they were wrong ahead of the unexpected Brexit result in the June 23 referendum a year ago.

On For A Hung Parliament?

However, YouGov stated: "Please note these voting intention figures are from YouGov's conventional polling, not our new election model".

Other reports by VgToday

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